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While cooling inflation and a robust GDP reading that smashed economists’ expectations are reasons to be optimistic about the US economy, one key economic engine seems to still be sputtering: small businesses. Small business owners say they’re still grappling with the hangover effects of inflation and a labor shortage, according to the National Federation of Independent Business’s most recent monthly survey, which was conducted in January. Dougherty said small businesses may be delayed in feeling the effect of easing inflation, but once businesses experience more prolonged stable prices, that may help their sentiment turn around. A recent survey of American Express small business customers indicated that some small business owners see strength in 2024. Half of the 557 US small businesses surveyed said they plan to grow or expand their businesses in the upcoming year.
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But after 10 rate hikes, the housing market — traditionally one of the most interest-rate-sensitive areas of the economy — is anything but predictable. Mortgage rates then continued to climb in tandem with the Fed’s hikes until November, when mortgage rates peaked at 7.08%, despite four subsequent rate hikes since then. Higher mortgage rates have reduced home inventoryIn theory, when mortgage rates go up, home prices should fall since it raises the cost of homeownership, thereby reducing demand. That’s partly because the higher mortgage rates that came after the Fed hiked rates created a major lock-in effect, said Kiefer. “That tells the crux of the story for why the housing market seems a bit odd right now,” Divounguy said.
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